Maybe 90,000 U.S. deaths by swine flu

WASHINGTON (CNN)- Influenza H1N1 could cause up to 90,000 American people, particularly among children and young adults,
when they emerge this fall, according to a report scheduled for Monday, an advisory committee, chairman of the group.


H1N1 virus, commonly known as swine influenza viruses can infect between

30 percent and 50 percent of the population of the United States during the fall and winter and bring in 1.8 million hospital admissions at a hospital in United States, the Chairman of the Advisory Council on Science and Technology reported.

The report states that 30,000-90,000 deaths are expected as part of a "plausible scenario", involving large outbreaks in schools, inadequate supplies of antiviral drugs and vaccination against the virus completed in time to be effective.

Up to 40,000 deaths in the United States are linked to seasonal flu each year, deaths are more common among people over 65 years. With seasonal flu and H1N1, this decline is expected to bring more birds and place of death "great stress" in intensive care units at the national level, which normally operate at near capacity, the report said.

H1N1 recovery can take place in September at the beginning of the school year, and the infection may peak in mid-October, according to the report. However, the H1N1 vaccine would be available until mid-October, and even then it will take several weeks, the vaccinated individuals to the development of immunity, the report said.

Potential mismatch in time, "could significantly reduce the usefulness of the H1N1 vaccine, the report said.

"Despite the best efforts, will cause certain diseases, serious illness, and unfortunately, some dead," Thomas Frieden, director of the Center for Disease Control and Prevention, said on Monday.


"But a lot has gone extraordinarily well," said Frieden. "There is a vaccine on track for distribution, diagnostic tests are available in over 100 laboratories, processing of pre-positioned throughout the country ... and the lessons for health professionals, schools, businesses and other communities" .

Among the report's recommendations for government agencies to:

• Prepare several "planning scenarios to determine the supply and demand for care.

• Establish monitoring systems to track information on an influenza-like illness.

• Develop plans for protecting the public, the most vulnerable groups such as pregnant women and those with pre-existing disease.

• accelerate the production of H1N1 vaccine and a first series - enough to vaccinate 40 million people, especially those who are at risk of serious illness - from mid-September.

Health and Social Services Kathleen Sebelius said the government in the preparation and advise the public was based on the need to strike a balance "on the continuum is paralyzed with fear against complacency."

So today, clinical trials of H1N1 vaccine has no negative side effects of what the experience with the vaccine against seasonal influenza, said Sebelius.

However, there is no formal decision to launch a vaccination campaign until these experiments were complete, he said. That decision would have been her, she said, stressing that any vaccination program is completely voluntary.

Pregnant women, health professionals and parents or guardians of children under 6 months of age, are among the most vulnerable segments of the population, said Sebelius.

Adults under the age of 65 years, the health basics - like asthma - are considered more vulnerable to the virus H1N1.

H1N1 preparation of guidelines for national companies, school systems were released three weeks ago. The plans are available at www.flu.gov.

H1N1 vaccine requires two shots, the second three weeks after the first. The immunity against the virus would kick in only two weeks after the second shot.

World Health Organization said the virus H1N1 global pandemic of June 11. More than 1490 people around the world have died from the virus since it emerged last spring, the official said last